The Front Lines of Modern Warfare: Ukraine’s Air Campaign
The past week has seen a significant escalation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with both sides exchanging blows in a war of strikes and drone attacks. The Ukrainian military has continued to press its advantage, targeting Russian airfields and factories, while Russia has responded with unprecedented ferocity.
In a surprise move, Ukraine’s forces struck at least three fuel tanks at Engels airbase, 500km southeast of Moscow, on Friday. This was part of Operation Spiderweb, which had seen the destruction of Moscow’s strategic bombers on June 1. The Russian air force also reported that it downed 102 Ukrainian long-range drones on Tuesday morning.
Russia’s Strikes: A Growing Threat
Russia has been ramping up its attacks in recent days, with over 1,400 Shahed drones launched in the past week alone. This includes a deadly cocktail of 407 drones and 45 missiles that killed at least four people in Kyiv on Friday. The strikes have also targeted Ukraine’s aviation, missile, armour and shipbuilding industries.
One particularly alarming development is the introduction of a jet-powered version of the Iranian-designed Shahed drone, capable of reaching speeds of 600 kilometres per hour (370 miles per hour). This has raised concerns about Russia’s ability to maintain pressure on the ground. Can Ukraine withstand this new level of aggression?
The Cost of War: Humanitarian Toll and Economic Consequences
The human toll of the conflict continues to mount, with at least one person reported killed when Russian bombs hit an apartment building in Kharkiv on Saturday. The city has been shelled continuously for 24 hours, leaving residents struggling to cope.
The economic consequences of the war are also becoming increasingly clear. Europe has banned all Russian oil imports, but allowed tankers insured in the European Union to trade oil to third parties for up to $60 a barrel. It is now considering lowering that price cap to $45. Meanwhile, sanctions targeting Russia’s banks and energy revenues have been floated.
A New Front: Russia’s Push into Dnipropetrovsk
While the air war rages on, Russian troops in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region at the weekend reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk, a Ukrainian region that Russian boots had yet to step on in the more than three-year war. This marks a significant psychological shift in the conflict.
The deputy chairman of Russia’s National Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has sought to leverage this development diplomatically, claiming that “those who refuse to acknowledge the realities of war at the negotiating table will face new realities on the battleground”. Will Ukraine be able to hold its ground?
A Divided West: Sanctions and Military Aid
The US and EU have continued to pull further apart in their response to the conflict. The US has announced it will provide no military aid to Ukraine, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s calls for increased support. In contrast, British and German officials have pledged significant military upgrades.
The European Commission has floated an 18th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s banks, energy revenues and military, including a ban on transactions involving the damaged and currently inoperable Nord Stream gas pipelines. Can this kind of economic pressure force Russia to change its tactics?
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As the conflict continues to escalate, one question remains: will Ukraine be able to withstand Russia’s increasing aggression? The stakes are higher than ever, with both sides trading blows in a war that seems to have no end in sight. Only time will tell if Ukraine can emerge victorious, or if the conflict will continue to drag on for months to come.
Will this new level of violence lead to breakthroughs in negotiations, or will it push the conflict further into the unknown? The world watches with bated breath as the situation continues to unfold.